This article provides a projected view of the global agricultural statistics focused on crops evolution based on the most recent reports of The Food and Agriculture Organization FAO and the The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development OECD.
On 2nd July 2024, the OECD and FAO published the Agricultural Outlook 2024-2033 report that provides a consensus assessment of the ten-year prospects for agricultural commodity and fish markets.
One of the important trends is the expected development of crops among regions and how the environmental, social, economic and geopolitical factors could significally impact on the international prices projections.
According to the 10 years anual projection report from the OECD and FAO cooperation, the value of global agricultural production is expected to increase by 1.1% annually, measured at constant prices.
Crop production is projected to grow at an annual rate of 1.0%.
The middle and low income countries are expected to remain their positions in the global agricultural expansion contributing with nearly the 80% of the global agricultural output by the end of 2033. With a continued transition to more intensive production systems, this growth will come from yield improvement. However, it is anticipated that the rate of output growth will not match the levels seen in the previous decade. This slowdown can be attributed to reduced growth incentives with weaker demand growth and more limited progress in improving production efficiency.
Sub Saharan Africa and the Near East and North Africa regions are anticipated to achieve significant production growth, albeit from a low base. It is expected a growth of 190.3 billion USD in Sub Saharan Africa added with the 32.80 billion USD for the Near East and North Africa in the next ten years. Specially, Sub-Saharan Africa's crop production expansion will be supported by both expanded acreage and land productivity increases, mostly coming from the availability of improved crop varieties and better farm management.
In Latin America and the Caribbean, robust crop production growth, stemming from both expansion and intensification, will be augmented by yield gains resulting from anticipated rapid increases in fertiliser application, as a result it is estimated that in 2033 a there will be reflected a growth of 210.3 billion USD.
On the other hand, Europe and Central Asia will grow the slowest with an expected growth of 190.8 billion USD for 2033. It is expected tighter regulations related to environmental sustainability and animal welfare might impact downward on yield improvements.
In the resource-constrained Asia Pacific region, the Outlook projects that production growth will be predominantly driven by improved land productivity gains. Countries such as China and India will lead this development with a forecasted growth of 414.4 billion USD in China and 220.1 billion USD in India for 2033.
Most crop area in Asia is dedicated to cereals, resulting in notable contributions to global production of rice, maize and wheat. The region’s strong processing sector also contributes a substantial share of global production of protein meal and vegetable oil but it draws heavily on imported oilseeds. China contributes almost all of the maize, more than 90% of the rice and approximately 80% of the wheat produced in the region.
Cereal production is also concentrated in India because half of cereal production comes from India alone with a further 15% attributed to the region’s last developed countries. India accounts for 80% and 45% respectively of wheat and rice production growth. While India’s wheat area is expected to expand by 7%, rice production growth is almost exclusively yield based. India’s dominance also stretches to sugar, where it accounts for almost 60% of regional production but this share is expected to decline as growth of 1.9% p.a.
Developed economies are expected to derive growth primarily from productivity gains, given the long-term decline in agricultural land use. However, stricter regulations related to environmental sustainability and animal welfare may temper yield improvements if they are tightened later.
The report's findings highlight the potential for less developed countries to contribute to the global agricultural economy. However, it also underscores the need for these countries to adopt efficient agricultural management practices to capitalize on growth opportunities. In contrast, developed countries face new challenges related to environmental conservation regulations that will shape their agricultural practices in the future.
I'm an economist specializing in agricultural economics, agribusiness planning, bioeconomy, and renewable energy. My passion for writing fuels my goal to contribute to a more resilient and efficient agricultural system that balances economic profitability with environmental stewardship. Through my research, I aim to advocate for sustainable practices that benefit both farmers and the environment.
